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Post by coolplanet on Mar 13, 2014 15:20:16 GMT -5
Latest from Peter Sinclair on the new state of our climate.
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Post by thedirtman on Mar 13, 2014 19:48:57 GMT -5
It's tempting to think of climate change as taking us from one steady state to another steady state, but I don't think that is the case. It's more likely that the state was only semi-stable to begin with. But, what's more important is that there isn't likely to be a stable state that we're headed for since the planet continues to warm. I see climate becoming randomized. If you can recall old television sets that had a vertical hold adjustment you might be able to picture what I mean. A failing vertical hold adjustment would start slowly at first. The picture rises on the tube cutting off the top of the picture. Soon pictures start rolling by quickly. A pattern will never again emerge as long as the planet continues to heat.
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Post by coolplanet on Mar 13, 2014 21:40:41 GMT -5
It's tempting to think of climate change as taking us from one steady state to another steady state, but I don't think that is the case. It's more likely that the state was only semi-stable to begin with. But, what's more important is that there isn't likely to be a stable state that we're headed for since the planet continues to warm. I see climate becoming randomized. If you can recall old television sets that had a vertical hold adjustment you might be able to picture what I mean. A failing vertical hold adjustment would start slowly at first. The picture rises on the tube cutting off the top of the picture. Soon pictures start rolling by quickly. A pattern will never again emerge as long as the planet continues to heat. That's not what climatologists have found. 55 million years ago climate shifted into a steady hot state within a period of 13 years: news.rutgers.edu/research-news/new-finding-shows-climate-change-can-happen-geological-instant/20131003#.UyJpEIWAmHf For the past 10,000 years Earth has experienced a relatively steady warm climate state which enabled agriculture and civilization to arise. The world's leading climate scientists such as James Hansen of NASA and James Lovelock of Gaia Theory have long warned that Earth could shift into a new steady hot state within a geological instant if Co2 levels continue to rise. |
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Post by thedirtman on Mar 14, 2014 8:03:57 GMT -5
The article from Rutgers is good stuff. I can even see a way it helps to make my point.
While CO2 has been increasing this increase is relatively slow in comparison. The year to year changes that we see in the climate are bound to occur slowly as well. The difference would be similar to skimming through pages of a book rather than skipping entire chapters - the sudden influx of CO2 causing the skipping.
The methane stored in the permafrost traps, if suddenly released, could brings us to the fast change scenario again. The release could also be slow. Some methane traps will be more vulnerable to release than others.
I do believe there is a more stable warm state. Perhaps we will regret not getting to this state faster. For now, I'm inclined to believe that planetary climate will roll through unstable instantaneous states, as in random.
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Post by coolplanet on Mar 14, 2014 12:08:13 GMT -5
The article from Rutgers is good stuff. I can even see a way it helps to make my point. While CO2 has been increasing this increase is relatively slow in comparison. The year to year changes that we see in the climate are bound to occur slowly as well. The difference would be similar to skimming through pages of a book rather than skipping entire chapters - the sudden influx of CO2 causing the skipping. The methane stored in the permafrost traps, if suddenly released, could brings us to the fast change scenario again. The release could also be slow. Some methane traps will be more vulnerable to release than others. I do believe there is a more stable warm state. Perhaps we will regret not getting to this state faster. For now, I'm inclined to believe that planetary climate will roll through unstable instantaneous states, as in random. JanforGore posted an interesting article about the rapid release of methane in the Arctic: water-is-life.blogspot.com/2014/02/methane-levels-continue-to-destabilize.html Arctic sea ice and tundra is melting much faster than anyone thought possible only a few years ago - a century earlier than the IPCC predicted in its worst case scenario. It was the sudden release of methane 55 million years ago that triggered a sudden shift into a hot state - 8 degrees C warmer - which killed most life on Earth within a few decades. From what I've read this is an enormous concern for climatologists. It's happening much faster than anyone imagined possible. |
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Post by thedirtman on Mar 14, 2014 20:50:16 GMT -5
By any account, this doesn't look good. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas.  |
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Post by coolplanet on Mar 14, 2014 22:01:14 GMT -5
By any account, this doesn't look good. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas. Thanks thedirtman! Wow we finally have a hot thread going.....  |
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